A framework for modelling the anticipated impact of policy options to promote resilience in children and young people


Date
Event
Society of Mental Health Research
Location
Melbourne

Background: Resilience is a popular construct in mental health but its desirability and utility as a framework for resource allocation is unclear. Challenges include the need for differentiation from overlapping concepts such as mental health promotion and prevention of mental disorders, identifying an aligned intervention evidence base and amenability to mathematical modelling. Methods: A mixed methods approach was employed to develop a conceptual model of resilience and open source tools to support modelling studies. The conceptual model was developed via literature review, public engagement through a public forum, youth engagement through a youth working group, youth focus groups and a policy hackathon, interviews with experts and deliberations by the research team. The conceptual model determined the features included in a quasi-synthetic population of households that we constructed by using bin matching to fuse records from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia and the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children databases. A purely synthetic version of that population was then constructed using predictive models estimated from the fused database. Code libraries were developed in R using an object oriented programming approach. Results: The conceptual model defined resilience in terms of the extent to which normative developmental trajectories relating to mental health are retained or regained following exposure to Adverse Childhood Experiences (ACEs). Individual, family and community factors impact resilience, suggesting a complex systems, agent based modelling approach. To support such approaches we produced a synthetic population comprised 42,553 individual agents, described with 122 features. We created 11 code libraries whose functionality supports sampling from and simulation of synthetic agents for multiple spatiotemporal contexts. Conclusions: Modelling resilience is complex and would benefit from open source collaborations. Our framework may help. However, better evidence about how ACE status impacts the efficacy of mental health prevention strategies is required.

Matthew Hamilton
PhD Candidate